El déficit fiscal es el exceso de gastos sobre ingresos del sector público. Es decir, cuando el goerno gasta más de lo que tiene. Para financiar el déficit, un país puede gastar ahorros del pasado o tomar deuda, asumiendo que sus ingresos se mantienen constantes.
En nuestro caso, los ingresos públicos representan la principal fuente de financiamiento del gasto público (Consejo Fiscal, 2018). Dada la volatilidad del ingreso (depende en buena pe del precio de los commodities) se ca programar con anticipación una senda para la evolución del gasto público (una especie de camino a seguir) que permita garantizar un compromiso de sostenilidad fiscal en el mediano plazo.
Fuente: Consejo Fiscal
Un país puede tener un déficit fiscal temporal en caso esté impulsando una política fiscal expansiva como consecuencia de un shock o evento negativo para la economía (un desastre , la necesidad de reactivar la economía, entre otros). No obstante, es insostenible gastar más de lo que se tiene permanentemente.
El Consejo Fiscal (comisión autónoma y técnica del sector público creada en 2015 que ca fortalecer la transparencia e institucionalidad de las finanzas públicas) advirtió en su último informe que la prolongación de la política fiscal expansiva que se viene dando en nuestro país constituye el principal riesgo para lograr la consolidación fiscal propuesta por el actual goerno y garantizar la sostenilidad fiscal por los próximos años.
El goerno afirmó que estos cinco años continuos de política fiscal expansiva se dieron en respuesta a fenómenos transitorios entre los cuales se encuentra el deterioro de los términos de intercamo, la desaceleración de la actividad económica de nuestros principales socios comerciales y la reconstrucción por el Fenómeno el Niño Costero.
El actual goerno propuso llevar el déficit fiscal a 1% del PBI para el 2021 (acabamos el 2017 con 3.2%, el más alto desde el año 2000). Sin embargo, el Consejo Fiscal afirma que si no se hace algo será imposible llegar a dicha meta, ya que las medidas tomadas por el goerno no han presentado los resultados esperados. Un ejemplo es la repatriación de capitales (que obtuvo la mitad de lo previsto). La entidad propone elevar el ingreso permanente (potenciar la recaudación tributaria, evitar proyectos de ley que atenten contra la recuperación de ingresos, entre otros) o estalizar el gasto, ya que el gasto poco (el más difícil de disminuir) presenta una tendencia creciente.
Fuente: Consejo Fiscal
En síntesis, la situación fiscal del Perú aún es de las más sólidas de la región, pero durante los últimos cinco años se ha venido deteriorando el espacio fiscal (capacidad del goerno para aumentar el gasto o reducir los ingresos sin afectar la sostenilidad de mediano plazo), lo cual acerca cada vez más al límite a nuestro país. Es clave pensar en el concepto de sostenilidad fiscal cuando se evalúen incrementos del gasto en el corto plazo. El goerno debe tener presente estos conceptos para asegurar un desarrollo sostenible de las finanzas públicas y en consecuencia un aumento continuo del enestar.
Consejo Fiscal. (2018). Opinión del Consejo Fiscal acerca de las finanzas públicas al 2017. Lima: Consejo Fiscal.
Parodi, C. (26 de Enero de 2018). ¿Son buenos o malos los déficit fiscales? Diario Gestión.
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